From 2016: “ 10 million self-driving cars will be on the road by 2020.” “ True self-driving cars will arrive in 5 years, says Ford.” We do technically have a few, running in a closed pilot project in Phoenix, courtesy of Waymo, but that’s not what Ford was talking about: “Self-driving Fords that have no steering wheels, brake or gas pedals will be in mass production within five years.” So, 18 months from now, then 12 months left for that “10 million” prediction. Self-driving cars: We were promised so much more, and I’m not even talking about Elon Musk’s hyperbole. But I think it’s fair to say they expected … a bit more … by now. Amazon teased Prime Air delivery way back in 2015 and made its first drone delivery way back in 2016, which is also when it patented its blimp mother ship.
But we’re a long way away from physical packet-switched networks. Rather, “The reality turned out to be far less rosy.”ĭrones: Now, a lot of really cool things are happening in the drone space, I’ll be the first to aver. Today’s Reality.” Spoiler: That last one does not discuss how reality has blown previous predictions out of the water. The Internet of Things: Let’s look at a few recent headlines, shall we? “ Why IoT Has Consistently Fallen Short of Predictions.” “ Is IoT Dead?” “ The IoT: Yesterday’s Predictions Vs. (Alexa, about which more in a bit, is not a chatbot.) “The world is about to be re-written, and bots are going to be a big part of the future” was an actual quote. And yet, here we are.Ĭhatbots: No, seriously, chatbots were celebrated as the platform of the future not so long ago. As for other AR/VR startups, their state is best described as “ sorry.”īlockchains: I mean, Bitcoin’s doing just fine, sure, and is easily the weirdest and most interesting thing to have happened to tech in the 2010s but the entire rest of the space? I’m broadly a believer in cryptocurrencies, but if you were to have suggested in mid-2017 to a true believer that, by the end of 2019, enterprise blockchains would essentially be dead, decentralized app usage would still be measured in the low thousands and no real new use cases would have arisen other than collateralized lending for a tiny coterie - I mean, they would have been outraged. A 27% annual growth rate is OK, sure, but a consistent 27% growth rate is more than a little worrying for an alleged next big thing it’s a long, long way from “10xing in three years.” Many people also predicted that by the end of this decade Magic Leap would look like something other than an utter shambles. What did we get?: 3.7 million to 4.7 million to 6 million, 2017 through 2019, while Oculus keeps getting reorg’ed. But in fact…ĪR/VR: Way back in 2015 I spoke to a very well-known VC who confidently predicted a floor of 10 million devices per year well before the end of this decade. Each has had champions arguing it will, in fact, be That Big, and even people with more measured expectations have predicted growth will at least follow the trajectory of smartphones or the internet, albeit maybe to a lesser peak. Let’s compare each of the above, shall we? I don’t think it’s an unfair comparison. That’s what a major platform shift looks like.
#The next big thing 2015 android
Here’s a list of smartphone sales since 2009: Android went from sub-1-million units to more than 80 million in just three years.
Here’s a list of internet users over time: from 16 million in 1995 to 147 million in 1998. You may recall that the growth of PCs, the internet and smartphones did not ever look wobbly or faltering. (Yes, self-driving cars would be a platform, in that whole new sub-industries would erupt around them.) And yet, one can’t help but notice that every single one of those has fallen far short of optimistic predictions. AR/VR blockchains chatbots the Internet of Things drones self-driving cars. There has certainly been no shortage of nominees over the last few years.
It seems inevitable that a fourth must be on the horizon. Over the last thirty-plus years we’ve lived through three massive, overlapping, world-changing technology platform shifts: computers, the internet and smartphones. It’s easy to see why it might seem that way. The question presupposes that something has to be next, that this is a law of nature. Today, smartphones and their apps are a mature market, not a disruptive new platform. In 2009, Symbian was still the dominant “smartphone” OS, but 2010 saw the launch of the iPhone 4, the Samsung Galaxy S and the Nexus One, and today Android and iOS boast four billion combined active devices.
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